[ExI] The USA is number one!

Dylan Distasio interzone at gmail.com
Mon Apr 13 17:12:28 UTC 2020


I'm not sure that your assertion is actually ironclad.   Let's suppose they
were 50 times higher.  As Spike pointed out, that would assume roughly
4,450,000 infected, many of them asymptomatic based on numbers out of
Iceland.  This would imply somewhere around ~50K deaths give or take
depending on which IFR you are assuming.   It is certainly within the CCP's
abilities to cover up the difference between the real death number and the
reported one if the numbers above held true.

Their aggressive quarantine would likely have led to the same pattern of
spread we're seeing in Italy and Spain where extreme social distancing is
pointing to CV burning out there.  Both are over the hump based on current

I'm not suggesting they were entirely unsuccessful with containing it, just
that it is extremely likely the real numbers during containment were WAY
higher than reported before it was burned out for the most part.

On Mon, Apr 13, 2020 at 1:01 PM John Clark via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Mon, Apr 13, 2020 at 12:13 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> if things were 50 times worse in China than what they claim that would
>>> mean that even when everybody was under strict quarantine, much stricter
>>> than anything seen in the west, the epidemic would still be raging at a
>>> rate not seen since medieval times, so when they stop the quarantine to
>>> restart their economy the epidemic would very quickly escalate to Stephen
>>> King levels never seen before on this planet, and their huge economy
>>> would be permanently destroyed. The idea you could keep something that
>>> astronomically huge secret from the world is absolutely ridiculous
> > *You truly believe that China has ~89K total cases despite THEIR
>> mishandling of the initial crisis and attempted cover ups*
> The Chinese shamefully tried to cover up and minimize things in the early
> days so the real numbers may be higher than that, but if they were 50 times
> higher as Spike says, 50 times higher even with the strictest quarantine in
> the world, then when they went back to normal, opened up and tried to
> restart the economy, there would be a biological supernova and well..., you
> tell me how they could keep a billion or so deaths and zero exports a
> secret. They're totalitarians not omnipotent Gods.
> John K Clark
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