[ExI] More Americans died of COVID-19 than died in battle in Korea

robot at ultimax.com robot at ultimax.com
Sun Apr 19 20:05:46 UTC 2020

Yesterday, I posted an incorrect estimate because I hit "SEND" before 
thinking the post thru and re-checking my numbers.  I regret the error.

Fatalities per day yesterday were half what I wrote, 2.5K/day not 
And, the second derivative has been negative for a week.
(However, anything on than first derivatives are notoriously squirrely.)
Cumulative figure as of midday is 40K Americans.
So "next stop Vietnam" won't be until sometime next week.

We came close to, but did not exceed, a 9/11 per day.
I hope we never do, but I am a student of history.


On 2020-04-18 10:51, robot at ultimax.com wrote:
> 37K, per Johns Hopkins -- we're past Korea now.
> "Next stop: Vietnam!" (per Country Joe McDonald live @ Woodstock)
> That is, at the current rate of accumulation of fatalities (~5K/day),
> we should hit that sad milestone, 58K, by early-middle next week.
> Next to come would be total American military deaths in WWI (combat +
> disease), 118K, which is just about double the butcher's bill for
> Vietnam.  Again, at current rates of dying, we should expect to see
> that milestone hit by the 1st of May.
> Whether or not we do hit that will indicate whether those projections
> we're hearing from the White House ("plateau at 60K") are worth
> anything or not.  Absent continued intervention, positive-feedback
> processes tend to run to completion, so it's difficult for me to
> believe that this one we're in is going to come to a sudden screeching
> halt in just a week.
> Wait and see, or, wait and not see...
> K3
> PS. This listserver's subject line management needs tightening up.
> This discourse in this thread hasn't been about the ostensible subject
> line for a long time now, hundreds of posts.
> PPS. I've been studying pandemics and history for a long time.
> See: http://www.ultimax.com/whitepapers/deadmediarev.html .
> For decades, I've been citing
> Hans Zinsser's /Rats Lice and History/ (1935 & 1960),
> William McNeill's /Plagues and Peoples/ (1976) (he was required
> reading in National Security Studies), and
> Jared Diamond's /Guns Germs and Steel/ (1997).
> You should read them too if you want to understand what really shapes
> human history.
> Just started a book recommended by a hacker friend: /The Fate of Rome/
> by Kyle Harper, 2017, Princeton University Press.  Good interview here
> on Utah public radio: "Plagues And The Fate Of Rome"
> https://radiowest.kuer.org/post/plagues-and-fate-rome .
> On 2020-04-18 09:20, extropy-chat-request at lists.extropy.org wrote:
>> Message: 12
>> Date: Sat, 18 Apr 2020 05:04:37 -0400
>> From: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
>> To: rafal at smigrodzki.org, ExI chat list
>> 	<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
>> Subject: Re: [ExI] More Americans died of COVID-19 than died in battle
>> 	in Korea
>>   On Fri, Apr 17, 2020 at 8:29 PM Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat <
>>   extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>   *> Universal quarantine should have never started*
>> Any particular reason why? We know from centuries of experience with
>> diseases that quarantines work.

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