[ExI] next county

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Wed Aug 5 21:51:14 UTC 2020


> On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] next county


On Wed, Aug 5, 2020 at 4:47 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:


> The public health officials and entire scientific community has the same dataset we do.  If the data is junky, their conclusions are as junky as ours are.


>…Spike, this is not an abstract discussion about philosophy this is a matter of life and death; do you really think you have the expertise to tell all the epidemiologists and statisticians on the planet how to do their job and set the world's scientific community back on the correct path?


John K Clark 



John I would urge them to carry up the caveats on the data from the level at which it is collected to the top level where it is reported.  Make sure every dataset where comparisons are made clearly state there are uncertainties in the data based on where it is collected.  The rates and ratios are given in nice crisp three digit precision, when some jurisdictions may be incentivized to undercount or overcount their rates for political or financial reasons.


So… have them estimate the error range.  Stop reporting three digits of precision when we are lucky if we can pick off one digit.  We must recognize that decisions are being made, students are failing, careers are being ruined, businesses are dying based on a presumed certainty in data which is unjustifiable.  The picture may be vaguely right, but don’t throw away the uncertainty bars on the data.


This part is not abstract or philosophy: If businesses die, government dies, then we die.



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