[ExI] did sweden accidentally achieve herd immunity?

Jason Resch jasonresch at gmail.com
Tue Aug 18 20:33:29 UTC 2020

On Fri, Aug 14, 2020 at 7:27 PM John Clark via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> It's unlikely Sweden has achieved herd immunity, The most recent studies
> indicate only 20% of people in Stockholm have been exposed to the virus,
> that's about the same number as those in New York and London, and most
> think you need at least 70% to achieve herd immunity. Sweden has not had
> significantly less economic pain than other countries, it's GDP declined by
> 8.6% and yes that's less than the average for the European Union as a whole
> which declined by 11.9% but it wasn't as good as some other European
> countries which did impose strict lockdowns and had far fewer deaths, the
> Czech Republic's GDP declined by 8.4% and Lithuania by only 5.1%.
> And Sweden suffered more non-economic biological pain from the virus than
> most, they had 8,200 cases of COVID-19 per million people, Norway had
> 1,780, Denmark had 2,560, the UK had 4,600, and the US had 15,400. As for
> deaths per 100,000 people, Sweden had 57, Norway had 5, Denmark had 11, the
> UK had 70, and the US had 50. But of course this pandemic is far from over
> so it will be sometime before we know what the final butcher's bill is.
The models that assume 70% are overly simplistic: they assume everyone is
equally susceptible to infection and also that everyone is equally good at
spreading the disease.

If there is any heterogeneity in the population regarding either
susceptibility or transmission, then the levels required for herd immunity
can become drastically lower:

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