[ExI] unjustified pessimism

Tue Aug 18 23:44:45 UTC 2020

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat

As for the great unwashed, it's their minds that need cleaning of the filth they get from news,Tweets and all that…bill w

BillW here’s a another take on a grim topic. 

This is the county covid site.  Note they are cheerfully reporting data from the state site CalREDIE, but putting huge red caveats on the data for the past 5 weeks:

But if you go to the CalREDIE site, POOF, all caution is cast to the wind, no caveats to be found:

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Immunization/nCoV2019.aspx

Nowhere on the site do I see anything resembling a scientific/government-esque version of PLEASE DISREGARD OUR DATA, WE SUCK.

But Santa Clara county has that big red Incomplete data due to State’s CalREDIE system.

Heh.

In any case… the county covid fatality rate is about one a day average, OK then.  They say right there on the site: Deaths provided in this dashboard do not necessarily mean that the individuals died from COVID-19.  

they mix WITHs with OFs, but either way, a little less than one fatality a day, two million proles, about the same risk of perishing in traffic in the US if we include motorcycles.

What if… we never do find an effective vaccine?  Recall that guy in Jolly Olde, I think he was BillK’s neighbor, some biggity big government sort who commented that at some point everyone is probably going to be exposed.  So eventually herd immunity will take over, as it apparently did in the 2003 SARS global pandemic.

As I recall, that guy was pilloried (note I am not actually claiming to know what the hell is pilloried (it is based on something we don’t really do literally anymore (but from the context I have always heard it, being pilloried is a bad thing.)))

We have long relied on the assumption that we must drive the new case rate to zero, or at least way down, until we can find a vaccine, by any means.  Well, sure, good luck to us, but what if BillK’s neighbor was right all along?  He commented that the real goal is to keep the case rate from brutally overwhelming the medical system, so we can treat this, until herd immunity takes over.

I get that!  Britain knows herds: they have all those sheep over there.  Not in the political sense, the actual wooly beasts as shown on one of my favorite documentaries on the topic, Shaun the Sheep:

https://www.shaunthesheep.com/

If the Brits make comments about herd immunity and pillories, it carries credibility.  

OK so now, if these scarlet-lettered data are anywhere near accurate, Santa Clara county damn well is very gradually approaching herd immunity (the humans I meant.)  We get about 150 or so new cases a day, that’s about 50k a year, or about 2 to 3 percent, herd immunity (of humans) will eventually happen, but keep in mind, the new case rate can only be an undercount (because not everyone gets tested (and some get a mild case and it goes away (and some are just naturally immune.)))   The covid fatality rate can only be overcounted (because it mixes WITHs and OFs.)

There is a possibility that British lad was right all along, we never find a vaccine, they wasted a perfectly good pillory on him that could have been used on Christopher Steele.

In the meantime… back in the states… if we get a steady new case rate of about 200k per day, hospitals stay in business, we gradually get back to life as we have known it. 

spike 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20200818/60c5537c/attachment-0001.htm>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 55163 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20200818/60c5537c/attachment-0001.jpg>