[ExI] Sturgis murders? was: Exi

[spike at rainier66.com]

-----Original Message-----
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
Subject: RE: [ExI] Sturgis murders? was: Exi 



-----Original Message-----
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> ...

>>...That whole setting just hasta be a virus playground.  If it isn't, I
need to rethink everything I thought I knew...I would guess 10% of the
bikers would get infected at that rally...  Guesses? spike
...

>...California has a looootta lotta proles and the Sturgis rally is popular
here, so we could reasonably estimate 500 Sturgis fatalities in California
alone.  Oy vey...Other guesses?  spike



A long time ago we had a co-moderator who strictly forbade quoting oneself.
We other moderators went along with it because he had such strong feelings,
but after he left that post, I couldn't see why not quote oneself.  One has
further ideas on a topic, why not?  I give me ideas all the time.  So... if
you wish to quote yourself with a further thought, I haven't seen ExIMod
complain about it or scold me, perhaps the worst offender.

Do pardon my focus on this grim topic please, for I had another thought.

I estimated that with 500k at Sturgis, a reasonable guess is 10% catchers
and 1% fatalties, so 5k deaths from Sturgis alone.

If we go that route, we aren't too far off if we estimate 10% of the
Sturgisers are from California, because California is a crowded state with a
looootta great biker roads around here, so I wouldn't argue with anyone who
said there were about 50k Californian Sturgisists.  (Sturgerinos?
Sturgeons?)

OK then, Santa Clara county doesn't have 10% of California's population, but
it has a lotta proles here, and it is high single digits percent of the
population of California.  Well sure, but this is a prosperous county, and
motorcycles are a popular fun way to blow excess cash (hey, that's what I do
with  mine) with lotsa fun interesting roads around here, Mount Hamilton,
the Coast Highway, biker hangouts at the legendary Alice's Restaurant (ja
that one from the song is nearby.)

So... if someone were to claim Santa Clara county has about 10% of
California's Sturgis-goers, I would accept that, also considering that this
is a strict-law area, so a coupla weeks a year of recreational civil
disobedience playing rough tough biker dude is popular foolishness.

OK ok ok, so... perhaps 5k Sturgis attendees from this county, I will buy
that, and if 10% catch and about 10% of catchers are dyers, that's about 500
catchers and about 50 fatalities from covid from Sturgis from Santa Clara
County.  50!  Fifty!  Sheesh!

Background covid death rate in this county over the past three months is a
little less than one adios amigo per day.  If Sturgis hands us 500 sick
bikers and 50 fatalities, all of them catching in one week, that's about 50
adioses over perhaps three weeks.  That will be easy, eeeasy to detect.  

Conclusion: We won't miss that grim signal if it is there.  It will be hard
to explain if it isn't.  The whole world will learn something new from this
dataset.

Somebody talk me outta this please.  Not necessarily your best case or worst
case estimates, but those would be OK too, I want just middle estimates.  My
median estimate is 50 Sturgis fatalities from my own county, mercy.  Worst
case twice that, best case half that.

I am surprised no one else here is running with the ball the way I just did.

spike