[ExI] test case

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Sun Jul 5 14:32:00 UTC 2020



BillK, I hear that Leicester kept their pubs closed as most of UK opened
theirs yesterday:




This can provide perhaps the most valuable test cases available anywhere on
the planet.  It is a big enough city with reliable news sources, informed
people, sufficient testing and medical resources, we can compare to other
cities which opened.  England has become the world's mine canary.


It has long been my contention that all economies everywhere must re-open
soon, otherwise they face even bigger problems than 2% of their population
perishing of covid.  At some point we need to be able to estimate the cost
in lives to open vs the cost in lives to stay closed.  California did that
calculus and started opening recently, but it is too soon to know for sure
the result.  There is a weekend effect for both new cases and deaths, so
late tomorrow we might have an indication of where California is going.  By
that time, the new cases from bars (if that is a big factor) might be



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