[ExI] No Recent Automation Revolution

[Dylan Distasio]

Thanks much for posting this.  I'm VERY interested to read your paper as
this has been my gut instinct based on anecdotal review of automation and
deep learning initiatives.  Apple is a good example of attempting to
automate an entire production line for the iPhone and failing miserably
despite a ton of talent and money thrown at it.   It's very hard to replace
the versatility of a human being for most tasks at this point outside of
some specialized use cases.  Tesla is another one.

On Tue, Jun 9, 2020 at 6:30 PM Robin D Hanson via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that for many years the
> media has been almost screaming that we entering a big automation
> revolution, with huge associated job losses, due to new AI tech, especially
> deep learning. … Last December, Keller Scholl and I posted a working
> paper suggesting that this whole narrative is bullshit, at least so far.
> An automation revolution driven by a new kind of automation tech should
> induce changes in the total amount and rate of automation, and in which
> kinds of jobs get more automated. But looking at all U.S. jobs 1999-2019,
> we find no change whatsoever in the kinds of jobs more likely to be
> automated. We don’t even see a net change in overall level of automation,
> though language habits may be masking such changes. And having a job get
> more automated is not correlated at all with changes in its pay or
> employment. Our working paper is now published in a peer-reviewed journal.
>
> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/06/no-recent-automation-revolution.html
> https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1bCkWbZedqLrV
>
> Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu
> Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford University
> Assoc. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
> See my books: http://ageofem.com http://elephantinthebrain.com
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