[ExI] No Recent Automation Revolution

[Brent Allsop]

Yea, funny how fast the herd flipps.   You now see lots of articles like
this:
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/columnists/daniel-howes/2020/01/16/self-driving-vehicle-hype-reckoning-reality/4481239002/

while 6 month ago it was the opposite.

On Tue, Jun 9, 2020 at 4:49 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Thanks much for posting this.  I'm VERY interested to read your paper as
> this has been my gut instinct based on anecdotal review of automation and
> deep learning initiatives.  Apple is a good example of attempting to
> automate an entire production line for the iPhone and failing miserably
> despite a ton of talent and money thrown at it.   It's very hard to replace
> the versatility of a human being for most tasks at this point outside of
> some specialized use cases.  Tesla is another one.
>
> On Tue, Jun 9, 2020 at 6:30 PM Robin D Hanson via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that for many years the
>> media has been almost screaming that we entering a big automation
>> revolution, with huge associated job losses, due to new AI tech, especially
>> deep learning. … Last December, Keller Scholl and I posted a working
>> paper suggesting that this whole narrative is bullshit, at least so far.
>> An automation revolution driven by a new kind of automation tech should
>> induce changes in the total amount and rate of automation, and in which
>> kinds of jobs get more automated. But looking at all U.S. jobs 1999-2019,
>> we find no change whatsoever in the kinds of jobs more likely to be
>> automated. We don’t even see a net change in overall level of automation,
>> though language habits may be masking such changes. And having a job get
>> more automated is not correlated at all with changes in its pay or
>> employment. Our working paper is now published in a peer-reviewed journal.
>>
>> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/06/no-recent-automation-revolution.html
>> https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1bCkWbZedqLrV
>>
>> Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu
>> Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford University
>> Assoc. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
>> See my books: http://ageofem.com http://elephantinthebrain.com
>>
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