[ExI] Summer weather and COVID-19

John Clark johnkclark at gmail.com
Fri May 22 12:33:37 UTC 2020

A new study from Harvard indicates that warmer weather and more humidity
and UV exposure will only modestly slow down the spread of the virus. It
all depends on the R value, the average number of people a infected person
will pass on the disease to others, if it's less than 1 the virus will
eventually die out. In Wuhan in the very early days of the epidemic before
any social distancing took effect R was found to be about 3.5. And this new
study suggests that the summer weather will likely reduce R by 43%,  and
that means R would still be way larger than 1. So that does not bode well
for the recent rash of reopenings that have been urged by some politicians,
by late summer or early fall we should know if this grim prediction was

Warmer weather alone will NOT be enough to fully contain the transmission
of COVID-19

John K Clark
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