[ExI] Summer weather and COVID-19

[Darin Sunley]

The study is not correct. I don't know exactly how it's wrong, but I
guarantee you that none of it's predictions will play out in reality to any
significant degree, except possibly by blind coincidence.

When you feed crap data into crap models, you get, at best, a vague
narrative that is politically useful to the people who funded the study.
Certainly nothing that reality is obligated to obey to any
significant precision.

On a more general note, model-based "science" simply isn't science. I
thought 30 years of imminently impending climate apocalypse should have
made this vividly clear.
Like they say about the economists who have predicted 15 of the last 2
economic downturns, climate models have predicted literally thousands of
the last zero global floods and dustbowls, and pandemic models have
predicted tens of millions of the last hundred thousand COVID-adjacent
deaths.

Models work for predicting the positions of planets and comets, and the
motions of spherical cows on frictionless planes in a vacuum. For
everything else, you need a lab.

On Fri, May 22, 2020 at 9:19 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

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> > *On Behalf Of *John Clark via extropy-chat
> *Sent:* Friday, May 22, 2020 7:48 AM…
>
> On Fri, May 22, 2020 at 9:04 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
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>  >> … that does not bode well for the recent rash of reopenings that have
> been urged by some politicians
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> *> **Some politicians may have their views, but over time, the citizens
> who are not politicians are increasingly deciding their lives must go on. *
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> >…That could very well be true, but it doesn't change the fact that if
> this study is correct it doesn't bode well for the recent rash of
> reopenings … then it also doesn't bode well for the politicians that
> advised people to go back to business as usual when the election is held in
> late fall.  John K Clark
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> It isn’t about elections.  It is about who pays for government.  It
> doesn’t matter if it is this party or that party if all they are doing is
> figuring out which government employees go out the door in what order.  It
> doesn’t even matter what form of government runs a country: in the long run
> all the same economic forces are at work: businesses (all over the world)
> create wealth and pay some of that to government.
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> In the US, federal government revenue is way down.  They respond by
> cutting back on support to states, but state revenues are also way down, so
> they cut back on support to counties, but county revenues are way down, so
> they cut back on support to city governments.  Some cities get a cut of
> sales tax (mine does) so they defy county shutdown orders (as mine does.)
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> Governments at all levels are being reminded of who pays the bills and how
> they pay the bills.  It doesn’t matter which party is doing what: all the
> same rules apply in the long run.
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> spike
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