[ExI] what did we learn?

[Adrian Tymes]

On Sun, Nov 1, 2020 at 2:40 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> would
> there have been a world-wide panic about it?


Yes.  Newspapers, radio, and TV would have conveyed the panic just the same.


> Would economies have
> suffered such massive damage?


Yes.  This came from reactions - government and individual - to the news,
which again would have been communicated just the same.


> Would people be worrying themselves sick
> about it, and dying from not getting treated for other problems?
>

Yes and yes.

Evidence: reactions to the Spanish flu, a comparable epidemic from before
the Internet.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf
for example.  To quote from its summary:

"Most of the evidence indicates that the economic effects of the 1918
influenza pandemic were short-term."  Just like today: limited to the
duration of the pandemic.  Note that we are still in the midst of the
pandemic, so "short-term" losses are still part of today's balance sheets.
But there is reason to believe there will be a recovery once the pandemic
is over.

"Many businesses, especially those in the service and entertainment
industries, suffered double-digit losses in revenue."  Again, just like
today.  (Arguably there are more marginal businesses today, such that
double-digit percentage losses in revenue would drive them to close.)

So I'm wondering how many times something like this has happened in the
> pre-internet past, and we've hardly noticed it?
>

It's been speculated that this sort of thing may be coming about roughly
once a century.  There was a cholera epidemic in early 18XX (apparently
mostly limited to Asia), when constant global travel was starting to be a
thing.  Before then, disease was constant enough - and global travel
infrequent enough - that there were no comparable epidemics.
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