[ExI] nursing homes again

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Sun Sep 6 20:50:21 UTC 2020


 

 

Santa Clara County is the only place I can find Covid fatalities by day
broken down by nursing home and non-nursing home.  In the graph on this
page, the homers are green, the non-homers are blue:

 

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-cases.aspx

 

We really distort the picture if we fail to take into account an important
demographic that is very simple to answer: do you live in a nursing home or
do you not live in a nursing home?  If you do not know the answer to that
question, you do.

 

OK then, nursing homers are about half a percent of the US population but
about 40% of the covid fatalities.  If we ignore that distinction, we get a
crazy-distorted picture of what is really going on.

 

You may have seen covid fatality rates by age demographics, but were they
scaled to the percentage of people in those age categories?  They should be:
there aren't that many people who are 95 or older.

 

If you look at the data for covid fatalities and divide thru by percentage
of the population in those decade brackets, you get data that looks like
this:

 



 

I scaled this to 1 for the 60 +/- 5 year decade.

 

The first odd looking thing is that people who are less than 55 have a 4
times higher risk than the 55-65 crowd, but not really: that column to the
left is actually the sum of 5.5 decades: that 4 is the sum of 5 and a half
age brackets, all of which are less than 1.  So no, it isn't higher chance
of perishing of covid if one is younger than 55, but rather a higher chance
that one IS younger than 55.

 

OK then, this is scary if one is over on the right side of that graph.

 

I estimated that for every nursing homer, there are about 20 non-homers.  My
estimate was remarkably correct.  Wiki claims about 1.5 megahomers in the
USA, and there are about 330 megaproles, so about half a percent of the
population accounts for about 40% of the covid fatalities.

 

OK then.  Once we take that into account and recalculate the numbers for
non-homers, using the CDC age demographics for nursing homes, we get a graph
that looks like this:

 

 



 

 

Well, it is still better to be young.  Being young is good for a lot of
things.  But the picture looks a lot different ja?

 

Once we take out and treat separately the nursing homers, most of whom are
senior citizens, we see that if we use the 60+/- 5 crowd as a comparison,
now instead of being 9 times more dangerous to catch covid while being
80+/-5, it is more like 2.2 times more dangerous to catch covid while being
80+/-5 years.

 

After one turns 85, if one is not in the nursing home, instead of being 22
times more dangerous, it is really about 4.2 times as dangerous to catch
covid at that age.

 

Clearly it is just dangerous to be over 95, but look at it this way:
eeeeeverything is dangerous after age 95.  A slip in the tub is dangerous at
95.  I took a fall in the tub, it was nothing more than an owwww damn, and
on with my business.  But I was 17 at the time.  At 95 that slip would be
very dangerous.  Sneezing is dangerous at age 95.  Copulation can be fatal
at that age (hmmm, OK bad example (copulation can be dangerous at any age
(depending on who it is with.)))

 

In any case. if we fail to take into account that 40% of the covid
fatalities are in a special-case half a percent of the population, we
distort the picture in important ways.

 

spike

 

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