[ExI] nursing homes again

[spike at rainier66.com]

OK so here is the Santa Clara covid data page:

 

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-cases.aspx

 

They will give the bar chart, but not the source data, soooo. I just cut the
grumbling and went across there, entering the data in a spreadsheet, which
allows an amateur data geek to do some tricks with it, such as plot out
cumulative fatalities separated by nursing home residents (in green) and the
non-homers (in blue.)

 

We get this:

 



 

 

The theory predicts that as we approach herd immunity, then the blue trace
should level out, but the green trace will not.  Reasoning: if we count
every confirmed case as a WITH or OF and all of it goes into the database as
a covid death, even if they were WITH covid six months ago, and actually
perished OF an enraged bride with a crowbar, if that hapless resident of the
crushed skull was a confirmed case at any time, in he goes, rules is rules.

 

By that reasoning, the nursing homers would perhaps not level out, but
continue to rise indefinitely at not so different a slope.  Reasoning: a
nursing home is a soul-crushing revolving door.

 

Please note: there is a big difference between assisted living and a nursing
home.  In assisted living, those are really just small expensive apartments
where nice young ladies come in every day and bring you food, take away your
dishes, straighten out your bed, hey what's not to like.  But that isn't a
nursing home (granted there is one of those very nearby usually (but
assisted living is not a nursing home (if you don't know about that grim
world, do go to a nursing home (after the danger is over (they don't want
you there now (when you get there, look, listen and learn.)))))

 

Before you draw any conclusions regarding death rates of the homers vs the
non-homers, note that the blue set is huge compared to the green set.  What
ratio?  I would be surprised if it is less than 20 to 1.  Any guesses on
that?  20 ordinary proles for every homer?  The above data is not scaled for
that.  The numbers of covid fatalities in each is pretty similar, but the
blue set represents perhaps 20 times as many people.

 

Speculations or observations please?

 

spike

 

 

 

 

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