[ExI] thoughts on omicron

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Wed Dec 1 14:55:37 UTC 2021



From: Tiffany Kary <tiffkary at gmail.com> 
Subject: Re: [ExI] thoughts on omicron


>…Here you conflate a couple of things: It isn't the case that the ability of a virus to spread is inversely correlated to its severity. (In fact, with Covid-19 we saw that the Delta variant was both more contagious AND resulted in more severe illnesses because hosts shed more virions) What contagion is correlated with is the activity of the host -- and with Covid-19, you have a long incubation period where the host doesn't experience symptoms and can go around spreading before they realize they're ill -- and in fact some people never feel very sick at all, like patient zero in New Rochelle, and keep spreading for days -- that's part of what has made this coronavirus so successful compared to past related coronaviruses like MERS where patients progressed to being bedridden very quickly once symptoms occured.

>…In fact, once you start to think about how virus' ability to get around affects its evolution, here's an interesting but important side note: when people wear masks and social distance, it makes it harder for the virus to hop from person to person -- meaning the virus has even stronger motivation to keep its host alive and well...i.e. to be less dangerous. There are already signs of how this is affecting Covid-19  -- check out Figure 5: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-02548-w



Cool thx Tiffany.  This is the first post I recall seeing from you.  Do tell us something about Tiffany Kary please.




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