[ExI] messiah virus

Dan TheBookMan danust2012 at gmail.com
Thu Dec 30 06:13:42 UTC 2021

On Dec 29, 2021, at 9:05 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: 
> The South Africans are claiming that having omicron is about 75% natural immunity for delta.  It’s not exactly the predicted messiah virus, but OK then, we will take what we can get.
> The notion (as I understand it) is that a milder virus spreads better because people with it are more likely to try to power thru and stay on the job, spreading it to more healthy people.  That makes sense, but it occurred to me that the vaccine is known to make a breakthru case less severe.  This means the vaccinated are more likely (if they catch delta) to power thru, stay on the job, infect the unvaccinated.
> We have been told that the unvaccinated are a big risk to healthy people, but by that reasoning above suggests it is just the opposite: the vaccinated are more dangerous to healthy people than the unvaccinated.

Let’s say what you say is true. And, further, let’s say you adopt the view that there should not be any mandates or even (as in Florida, I believe) that private employers shouldn’t be allowed to require vaccination. Wouldn’t you say the wisest course would be to then both get vaccinated and advise everyone else to get vaccinated as well? (Of course, you might argue that those who can’t or absolutely won’t get vaccinated would then be at the highest risk. I’d have to see the numbers if there’s a sweet spot (or spots) where vaccination rates are optimal to account for the vaccinated causing risk — one we haven’t already passed in respective regions.)

(My fear would be, too, for the unvaccinated what I’ve seen in my working life: people staying on the job, coughing and sneezing and slobbering whole sick. This was before COVID. And I recall one person telling me he got paid for sick days he didn’t use. So at the end of the year, the sick days he didn’t use amounted an extra week’s pay. It was a bonus check for not taking off. (Under COVID, there’s a lot of pressure to take off and people are much more afraid of spreading or getting sickness. So maybe my earlier experience doesn’t apply now.)


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