[ExI] covid data

[spike at rainier66.com]

Ok well. the signal is clear enough now, and not surprising.  We saw the
covid cases go way up with the start of flu season.  It looked like it
peaked and was heading back down in November, but. the festival of
Thanksgiving, family gatherings indoors, back up it went.

 

Peaked once again in the third week of December as the Thanksgiving peak ran
its course, was heading back down, reaching a local minumum on 29 December,
when new cases from Christmas family gatherings kicked in.

 

New Years celebrations contributed perhaps, but new covid cases in the USA
peaked on 11 Jan 2021 at 255k.  Today they dropped below 70k for 7 day
rolling average, so less than third of what it was  six weeks ago and
dropping.

 

Vaccinations might have been part of it, but with 20% vaccinated, it isn't
the driver.

 

Theory: it is indoor gatherings doing this, always has been, just as indoor
gatherings spread the regular flu since always.  This data isn't hard to
read.  It's hard to mis-read.

 

spike

 

 



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