[ExI] Michio Kaku makes 3 predictions about the future

[spike at rainier66.com]

... <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat


... spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
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>> Ja, but it does not need to stay a chaotic third world situation forever, and I am predicting that it will not.  A developed nation (or in China’s case a perpetually developing nation) can buy a territory, defend it, convert it, enrich it, develop the hell out of it, create jobs, establish order from chaos.  We have plenty of examples of it in history everywhere on the planet... spike




>...China is busy installing solar power in their Gobi desert and other desert areas in the west of their country with plans going up to 2025.
So probably it will be at least a few years before they do much in the Sahara (if ever).

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-solar-power-capacity-set-record-increase-2022-industry-body-2022-02-23/

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BillK

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BillK, the reason I am betting in the long run on China developing the Sahara rather than the Gobi is that the latter is too far from the sea.  With West Sahara, they (or another country) could buy the land cheap (even if they buy it from four different "owners") defend it, develop it, haul in raw materials from the sea and haul out finished products the same way.  Given money and technology, the coast of West Sahara could look like San Diego, with a hip, swinging night life, a luxurious lifestyle to attract mod hipsters wanting to go there to work and have some fun.  The continent of Africa need not be consigned to its current dismal state forever.

On that bit about hauling out finished products: consider the notion of oil tankers.  We know those lumbering beasts sometimes get caught in storms or perhaps attacked by hostiles, in some cases just to see what happens when a million gallons of refined fuel burns.  But what if... we hauled refined liquid fuels using subsurface vessels (the "we" being humanity (not necessarily China (but possibly China (they appear to be in the lead currently (the Chinese are commies but not stupid.)))))  A submarine tanker would not be particularly expensive to build because it doesn't need to be a nuke (and wouldn't be for that application.)  It could be an air-breathing Diesel rig, which wouldn't be fast of course, but it wouldn't need to be.

Engineers among us, do the calcs.  A submersible tanker need not go deep (and wouldn't.)  It would have a snorkel for the Diesel engines and a periscope to watch for trouble.  It could putter to Lisbon at a leisurely ten knots, take a coupla weeks to get there, from there onto trucks or train cars where the fuel could be hauled anywhere in Europe overland.  It could be shipped that way to Brazil in twice that time or even North America if you have a lot of patience.  Note that our current fuel tankers are not particularly fast either, but they don't need to be.  In the event of a storm, the submersible just pulls in the snorkel, sits quietly down there safe and unconcerned a day or two until the sun comes out, scarcely aware of maelstrom raging a couple dozen meters above. 

Regarding solar generation in the Gobi, the only real advantage I can see is that China already owns it.  But many of us can see what would happen if they buy Western Sahara: they will develop it, the locals will see what happened, then... eventually... China will buy its way all the way across there, like a manifest destiny, owning everything north of Nigeria between the Atlantic and the Red Sea.  If you go into Google Maps earth view for Africa, I can imagine China and India owning everything brown, and some of that in green.  Note there is no should, but rather just will.  The article mentions Chinese plans going out to 2025, but I am thinking about the half century after that.

Engineers among us, do some BOTECs for submersible fuel tankers please.  Mine are showing the whole notion is practical.

spike