[ExI] Nonspecific effects of Covid vaccines

Rafal Smigrodzki rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
Wed May 4 20:27:04 UTC 2022


On Wed, May 4, 2022 at 5:59 AM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
> Other sites are also starting to query the all-cause mortality statistics.
> The problem is that these effects take a long time to become evident.
> By which time it may be too late.
>
>
### The problem is that the Covid vaccine studies were terminated very
early, after only four months. These were the only placebo-controlled
studies, or in other words, the only studies that are unlikely to be
garbage. The unexpected mortality related to mRNA vaccines showed up in
these four months and of course we don't know if it would have tapered off,
persisted or even increased with longer observation.

All the other studies on Covid vaccines are observational, case-control and
other low-confidence designs. This means we really don't know anything
reliable about long-term effects and, since it is very doubtful there will
be any additional placebo-controlled studies, we will never know.

One interesting tidbit of information from Dr Stabell-Benn is that the
nonspecific mortality effects of non-live vaccines are more pronounced in
girls.

The practical upshot of this all is a big shift in what I would recommend
to my patients:

1. Strictly avoid non-Covid mRNA vaccines of all kinds unless conclusively
shown in placebo-controlled extended studies that the vaccine has a clear
net positive effect on all cause mortality.
2. Give preference to adenovirus Covid vaccines if you consider getting
vaccinated.
3. Strictly avoid mRNA Covid vaccines if you are at low risk of Covid
morbidity (i.e. generally healthy individual less than 50 years old)
4. Strictly avoid vaccination of children, especially girls, for Covid
using mRNA vaccines.
5. Avoid booster Covid mRNA vaccinations until proven safe in
placebo-controlled studies.

The above points are not meant as medical advice. I provide medical advice
only to specific patient's whom I accept into my practice. Consult with
your medical provider before making any decisions about prescription
medical treatments.

The difference from my previous recommendations was that I did not
differentiate between mRNA and adenovirus vaccines and I did not strongly
advise against vaccination of children and healthy adults up to 50 years of
age.

I am sorry for failing to scrutinize the available information on Covid
vaccines before dismissing concerns about them. Naively, I thought that the
pivotal vaccine studies would have a built-in all-cause mortality endpoint
but it turns out they didn't. All they did was to look at Covid-related
mortality and indeed the vaccines worked fine in that respect.
Unfortunately, there are many situations in medicine where success in a
particular endpoint (disease-specific mortality, improvement in a proxy
measure of health) is completely overshadowed by concurrent effects on all
cause mortality and other morbidity. Every pivotal study *must* have
all-cause mortality as an endpoint, or else it's garbage.

There is a lot of garbage out there.

Rafal
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20220504/d2863418/attachment.htm>


More information about the extropy-chat mailing list