[ExI] this year's ace

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Thu Sep 15 19:24:37 UTC 2022




The common metric for storminess is ACE, accumulated cyclone energy.


The curve below is ACE this year and the average over the past 56 years
since satellites.


Average for the ides of September is 70, but we are not yet at 30.



All this has me pondering what happens to insurance rates if we go an entire
season with zero or negligible storm damage.  My guess is the rates will not
go down at all.  They will go up.  Reasoning: calm years are very costly and
dangerous, for they result in droughts in Europe, which cause crop failures,
which our company also hasta pay for.


Conclusion: we can't win.  We can't even break even.



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