[ExI] population bomb?

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Mon Jan 23 16:47:31 UTC 2023



Ehrlich’s population explosion models have been proven wrong repeatedly.  I
am having trouble finding references to past predictions on when China would
reach peak population.  In the 1960s, there was so much talk about how China
had instituted a one-child policy but that population would continue to grow
anyway because of its demographics: so many of the Chinese still in their
fertile years had yet to bear their one child.  With that, most of the
mathematical models suggested China would peak in about 2040.


However… now they are saying that China’s population has already peaked.  I
think those models underestimated how many fertile Chinese who had not yet
borne their one child would never do so.  Plenty of Chinese decided if
having only one child is good for China, than having none is better.  


Well… in reality… it isn’t.  Childless people have a different outlook than
those who raise children.


Now I am relying on memory, and the internet isn’t handing over the
published predictions from the past on China’s population models.  Does
anyone here have  links or remember past predictions on that?



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