[ExI] Six Startling Predictions

Adrian Tymes atymes at gmail.com
Fri May 5 01:11:33 UTC 2023


#1 almost certainly won't happen by then, though there will be marketers
breathlessly insisting their particular product does it, preventing any
definitive statement that this has not yet happened.  Evidence: similar
claims that have been made for years about mobile apps that are barely AR.

#2 already exists in toy-grade approximations.  To achieve the level
described would mainly be a matter of refinement to existing applications
and broader acceptance, both of which could well happen by 2028.

I doubt there will be near-universal agreement on #3's claim of mastering
an art.  The only objective measure will be, will AI-generated content be
among the best selling novels, and among the best selling screenplays, more
than once in a while?  The main barrier there is screenplays: given how
long best selling movies take to produce, the screenplay's script would
need to be mostly generated in the next three years.  That is, the AI's
part would need to be mostly done no later than 2026, which seems unlikely.

#4 is almost the case now, in certain very specialized circumstances.
Since the prediction only says it will happen at all, not how common it
will be, I'll give that one a pass.

Likewise, #5 is already happening today.

#6 might happen in a world more rational than the one we live in.  In too
many cases at the most senior levels, there continues to be reluctance to
take advantage of tools of demonstrated utility and reliability, which
mostly only changes as those in charge die off and get replaced by those
who grew up at least passingly familiar with the new technology.  Even
today, there still exist senior managers who refuse to use computers
because keyboarding was women's work when they were young, though the last
of these are being forced out.  I see no reason why AI will fare any better.

On Thu, May 4, 2023, 11:59 AM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> The Great AI Disruption: Six Startling Predictions That Will Shape Our
> Lives and Test Our Limits
> by Thomas Frey | May 4, 2023
>
> To better grasp the transition we’re in, I will help unpack six
> predictions surrounding the future of AI and the profound impact these
> developments will have on our lives, as well as the ethical questions
> and challenges they will raise. As we delve into these predictions, it
> is essential to consider the implications of these technologies and
> the importance of striking a balance between the benefits they bring
> and the potential risks they pose.
>
> <
> https://futuristspeaker.com/artificial-intelligence/the-great-ai-disruption-six-startling-predictions-that-will-shape-our-lives-and-test-our-limits/
> >
>
> Quotes:
> 1. By 2026, AI-driven virtual reality experiences will become so
> immersive and realistic that they will blur the distinction between
> the virtual and the physical world, leading to widespread debates on
> the nature of reality.
>
> 2. By 2028, AI-generated news anchors will become commonplace,
> delivering real-time news updates with unparalleled accuracy and
> speed, but sparking ethical discussions about the potential loss of
> journalistic integrity and human touch.
>
> 3. By 2030, AI will have mastered the art of creating original,
> best-selling novels and screenplays, leading to intense debates about
> the value of human creativity and artistic expression in a world
> dominated by AI-generated content.
>
> 4. By 2032, AI-enabled personal assistants, or buddy bots, will be
> able to predict and cater to their users’ needs and emotions with such
> accuracy that they will become indispensable companions, raising
> concerns about the impact on human relationships and mental health.
>
> 5. By 2034, AI will have created entirely new industries and job
> categories, pushing humans to adapt and acquire new skills to remain
> relevant in the workforce, leading to a reevaluation of the
> traditional notions of work and productivity.
>
> 6. By 2036, AI will have become an integral part of human
> decision-making at all levels, from personal choices to global
> policies, prompting philosophical debates about the nature of free
> will and the ethical implications of relying on artificial
> intelligence for guidance.
> -----------------
>
> My feeling is that his timescale is too slow.
> Change will happen faster and faster.
> That's what exponential means!
>
> BillK
>
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>
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