[ExI] Six Startling Predictions

[Keith Henson]

On Fri, May 5, 2023 at 12:10 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
snip

> Startling? Disruptions??
>
> I'd call those trite ripples.
>
> The emergence of true AGI will be much more disruptive than any of
> those, and could happen much much sooner than anyone expects.
>
> And the 'predictions' I'd be looking for would be things like: When will
> uploading be available? (which is probably the single most important and
> urgent thing, for us humans). When will indefinite biological lifespans
> be possible? (probably the second most important). Ditto Nanotechnology
> (Drexlerian nanotech, or the nearest equivalent that will work in
> reality), which would likely be an enabler of the other two.

I agree with you on these points.

> And nobody can put a timeframe on any of those things.

The person who has done the most to put timeframes on these events is
Ray Kurzweil. I have not seen an update, but the last time I looked he
was targeting around 2045.
>
> All assuming, of course, that the emergence of true AGI doesn't
> inadvertently kill everybody, as an unfortunate but unavoidable
> side-effect of dismantling the planet to make quintillions of processing
> nodes, for example.

I find this to be unlikely because energy and heat sinks are more of a
problem than material for processors.

On the other hand, human desires and benign AIs could put an end to
the biological existence of the human race.

Keith

> Ben
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat