[ExI] interesting take on nuclear power

[Keith Henson]

On Fri, Mar 8, 2024 at 11:03 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Thanks for clarifying...If anyone else thinks it is that close, would still be interested in hearing the arguments for it.

I admit to being lazy on this topic and follow Ray Kurzweil.  Until
the LLM came out, Ray was expecting the Singularity to hit in the
mid-2040s.

After the LLMs came out, Ray cut his estimate to 2030. Eliezer
Yudkowsky has expressed that the human era is about over, perhaps 5
years.

Ray and Eliezer may be wrong, but they have put far more effort into
understanding the issue than I have.

Keith


> On Sat, Mar 9, 2024 at 12:55 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> On Fri, Mar 8, 2024 at 9:12 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>>
>>> Respectfully, I'm curious how you have odds of even close to 50% of the Singularity happening by 2030.   What is behind this optimism?
>>
>>
>> I said over 50% against it happening by 2030, which sufficed for my point (it's unlikely to happen in the next few years, so other measures over at least the next few years to deal with scarcity are justified).  A fuller truth is that my odds are well over 50% against it happening by 2030, so the odds are not close to 50% of it happening by 2030.
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