[ExI] what if... the singularity isn't near?

[spike at rainier66.com]

OK sure, this site is all about the singularity being near, and OK sure, I
am a big heretic for even entertaining the notion it might not be.

 

But what if. the Singularity is a coupla decades off still, and Kurzweil was
mostly right, but off a little, and the Singularity is still coming but not
right away?

 

Then what?  Do I get to sell Singularity insurance?  

 

Because it appears to me that what we are calling AI might be a kind of
false alarm: a big advance in smart search might make us think the
Singularity is nearer than it really is.

 

Then what?  What if. intelligence really is substrate dependent for reasons
we don't currently understand, or the Singularity depends on technology we
don't yet have.

 

Then we would predict the Singularity sooner than it is, ja?

 

Singularity thinkers come on, help me Obi wans, alla yas: might we be in a
situation where we are fooling ourselves?  OK then what please?

 

spike

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