[ExI] Satoshi Nakamoto

[Keith Henson]

On Wed, Aug 5, 2026 at 2:56 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> He has pretty thoroughly demonstrated he's not going to use it to
> invest in anything.
>
At this point, I'd assume that either he has in fact lost the key, or
> he thinks it's in his best interest to act as if he has, and that
> either way all those Bitcoins he has effectively don't exist.
>
> Find a way to demonstrate it on prototype scale.


Sigh, 100 tons-per-day gasifiers using plasma torches for heat have been
done 20 years ago. The main difference here is using induction instead of
high maintenance plasma torches. I am thinking of 2500 tons-per-day for a
prototype. That's one part in 30 for what would be needed for Los Angeles.
The AIs guess such a prototype would cost $200 to $300 million.

At some point, a demonstration will not work because of scaling laws. Small
devices have unfavorable surface to volume ratios. A 160 MW prototype is
expected to leak at least 8 MW.

I know the Bitcoin founder is a real long shot. But I don't know of anyone
else who has the depth of pocket for this project. Well, Elon does but
making contact with him is probably as hard as reaching Satpshi.
At some point, a demonstration will not work because of scaling laws. Small
devices have unfavorable surface to volume ratios. A 160 MW prototype is
expected to leak at least 8 MW.

I know the Bitcoin founder is a real long shot. But I don't know of anyone
else who has the depth of pocket for this project. Well, Elon does but
making contact with him is probably as hard as reaching Satpshi.

It doesn't need to
> be profitable on prototype scale, but it does have to demonstrate
> actual production.  Theorycrafting is fine, but you will not get that
> scale of money (any time in the next several years and this side of
> the Singularity, at least) until after you have done a physical
> demonstration.
>

Would this project be useful after the singularity? Or would every home
have a recycle machine?

Near as I can tell, every part of this project exists at a high TRL. The
most exotic part is the shaff gasifier with a pool of 1600 deg C iron in
the bottom. It would draw 160 MW to keep it hot. There are melting furnaces
up to perhaps 30-40 MW.

You are right to be concerned about it working. A huge waste to aviation
fuel project in Reno went bust a few years ago.
https://www.greenairnews.com/?p=8361 It is a really interesting story. I
talked to Jim Stonecipher a few weeks ago. I would love to have him as a
reviewer or advisor.

>
> I suggest identifying some trivial, tiny piece that you can do on,
> say, $100K-200K, and proposing that miniscule starting piece to the
> Department of Energy SBIR program


Maybe. This is related to renewable energy and you know how any project
related to that is doing. But then, maybe I should see if Trump would give
me a billion *not* to do it.

when their Phase I submissions
> reopen later this year.  Once you've done that, then the DOE might be
> willing to put in $2M for a slightly less tiny demonstrator under
> "Phase II"...and after you've done that, then Phase III might open up
> to do one of the gasifiers you mentioned.  It doesn't matter that you
> think you have all the plans right now; outside of military funding
> (and often even then), you generally have to do that kind of scale-up
> proof.
>
> It's slow, it sucks, but the alternative to prototype-then-scale-up is
> begging for the rest of your life (or until you give up) for funding
> and never getting a dime.


Maybe. I have two or three organizations that have been bugging me to take
funding from them. But I doubt they would actually part with a dime
considering this project does not have a CEO, a management team, or even a
corporate structure..


> What your idea is, is irrelevant: you could
> solve the energy crisis forever and there still won't be funding from
> anywhere if you need $1B+ before you show any results at all.
>
> This is the Extropians list.  Effective action is called for.  Don't
> bang your head on paths that have been thoroughly proven to not work.
>

I did that, worked for ten years or more on power satellites. Finally gave
up when the best I could do was 3 cents per kWh and PV solar got down to
1.35 cents per kWh. The other problem was it took $60 B to get it started.
By comparison, SolarSyngas is a pittance.

>
> On Wed, Aug 5, 2026 at 4:44 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > I really doubt the originator of Bitcoin follows this list, but if he
> does, I would like to get in touch. Assuming he has not lost the key, he
> has about $80 billion in Bitcoins.
> >
> > The SolarSynga project needs money on that scale. It would take around
> 30 gasifiers at maybe $250 million each to process all the trash LA
> generates.
> >
> > Keith
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