[ExI] My prediction

[BillK]

On Fri, 2 Jan 2026 at 20:31, spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> Imagine proposing this as a bet on PredictIt or one of the other
meme-futures betting sites.  Challenge: think of some set of objective
metrics which can be used as payout criteria for 1 Jan 2027.  We need some
way to determine that 2025 (and presumably all the years previous) were
“normal” but 2026 is not.
>
> If we get those, I will be ready to bet 2026 will pay off for those
betting “normal” for 2026.  We can even play a non-monetary version of it,
here among friends.  The prize will be my everlasting respect, or lasting
until I forget, whichever comes first.  My prediction: 2026 will be normal.
 2027 will be normal too.  But we need an objective way to determine who
wins.
>
> Ideas anyone?
> spike
> _______________________________________________

I asked Grok AI - How would we know 2026 was no longer a "normal" year?
Grok produced a lengthy report (available upon request), so I asked Grok to
summarize it.
BillK

Grok 4.1 Expert -
Here's a concise summary of the analysis on AI developments in 2026 that
could render 2025 as the last "normal" year, where human-centric norms in
work, society, and daily life prevail before pervasive AI integration:

- **Autonomous AI Agents**: Systems that independently plan and execute
complex tasks across industries, automating up to 70% of knowledge work,
prompting UBI experiments and shifting humans to oversight roles.

- **Continual Learning and Self-Verification**: AI that adapts in real-time
without forgetting, becoming reliable for critical fields like medicine and
education, accelerating discoveries and embedding as ambient assistants.

- **Physical AI and Humanoid Robots**: Robots with real-world dexterity
entering homes, healthcare, and manufacturing, displacing jobs, altering
geopolitics, and introducing embodied AI into physical spaces.

- **Multimodal On-Device AI**: Seamless integration of text, vision, and
audio on personal devices, enabling AR/VR experiences, predictive health,
and hyper-realistic content generation, while raising deepfake concerns.

- **Governance and Ethics at Scale**: Enforced global regulations and
sovereign AI models, creating trust but fragmenting tech ecosystems and
intensifying international tensions.

These advancements, if converged, could irreversibly transform society,
making AI an autonomous force rather than a mere tool, with modest economic
growth masking profound disruptions.
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