[ExI] My prediction

[John Clark]

On Fri, Jan 2, 2026 at 6:12 PM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

*> Collective opinion isn’t really an objective measure or metric.  *


*But unless you're talking about a right angle, the word "normal" isn't
about an objective thing, it's about a  subjective thing, so that is
what must be used. That's OK because subjectivity is the most important
thing in the universe, or at least it is in my opinion. *

*> Are there any objective metrics we can use to evaluate your prediction?
> It must be decidable on 1 Jan 2027 and objectively measured somehow.*


*Given that part of my prediction involved January 1, 2031 it's hard to see
how a definitive determination of its accuracy could be found before that
date. It's conceivable that on 1 Jan 2027 even you will admit that the
preceding year had not been normal, but that is not my prediction. *


*John K Clark*





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> *From:* John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] My prediction
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> On Fri, Jan 2, 2026 at 3:29 PM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
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>  *> **we need an objective way to determine who wins. Ideas anyone?*
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> *Yes, on January 1, 2031 we ask everybody on the list (provided anybody is
> still around) if they think my prediction that 2025 was the last normal
> year turned out to be a good one. *
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> *John K Clark*
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> *Is there any objective way to determine if 2026 is an abnormal year
> without waiting five years?  Bets on events five years out seldom sell, for
> inflation must be taken into account.  Furthermore: our collective
> attention span is shorter than that.  *
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> *Collective opinion isn’t really an objective measure or metric.  Are
> there any objective metrics we can use to evaluate your prediction?  It
> must be decidable on 1 Jan 2027 and objectively measured somehow.*
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> *Until I think of a way to objectively measure abnormal, I predict 2026
> will be a normal year.*
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> *spike*
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