[ExI] My prediction

[spike at rainier66.com]

From: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> 
Subject: Re: [ExI] My prediction

 

On Fri, Jan 2, 2026 at 3:29 PM <spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> > wrote:

 

 > we need an objective way to determine who wins. Ideas anyone?

 

Yes, on January 1, 2031 we ask everybody on the list (provided anybody is still around) if they think my prediction that 2025 was the last normal year turned out to be a good one. 

 

John K Clark

 

 

Is there any objective way to determine if 2026 is an abnormal year without waiting five years?  Bets on events five years out seldom sell, for inflation must be taken into account.  Furthermore: our collective attention span is shorter than that.  

 

Collective opinion isn’t really an objective measure or metric.  Are there any objective metrics we can use to evaluate your prediction?  It must be decidable on 1 Jan 2027 and objectively measured somehow.

 

Until I think of a way to objectively measure abnormal, I predict 2026 will be a normal year.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

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