[ExI] My prediction

[spike at rainier66.com]

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat
Sent: Saturday, 3 January, 2026 2:47 AM

Cc: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] My prediction

 

I will make two more predictions: 

 

>…1) The idea of Universal Basic Income will start to become mainstream but Mr. I Lowered Drug Prices By 1600 Percent will not embrace the idea because if he doesn't even understand how percentages work then he certainly can't understand the gargantuan economic and social disruptions that AI will produce…

 

Clarification: this prediction is already wrong, for the notion of UBI has already started to become mainstream.  Do offer an objective metric please.

 

 

 

>…2) As a result of #1 on January 1, 2027 the popularity of the current president will be at its lowest level that any president has had in the last 50 years….

 

Did you mean by the RPC average?  How will the winner of this bet be determined unambiguously please?

 

 >…By the way, I woke up this morning and learned that we are now at war with Venezuela. Venezuela?! 

 

That was a short one.  The citizens are being urged to “take to the streets” but it is unclear what good that will do, for the US military forces have already achieved their goal and left.

 

>… I'm sticking with my prediction. 

 

John K Clark

 

 

John, we must find a way to determine if you were right.  We only have strictly comparable data going back 22 years.  As I understand it, RCP determined a standard by which polls could be included in their average in 2004 and have not changed since then.  So we really only have two other comparables, 43 and 44 (POTUS 46 didn’t have a second term so there is no comparable data available.)  There were polls before 2004, but we need a way to average several polls in order to make any sense of them.

 

I propose we use RCP average and use the data we have.  Since there are only three who are in the race, I would have offered you 66 RC cents for a Not share.  However you seem very sure of yourself, so I will only offer you (or anyone else) 50 cents for a Not on John’s second wager.  Come on, it’s just a game, and we are among friends here.

 

spike

 

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

 

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