[ExI] My prediction

[Adrian Tymes]

On Mon, Jan 5, 2026, 5:42 AM John Clark via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Sun, Jan 4, 2026 at 11:57 AM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>
>
>> *> Here is an example of wording in PredictIt, regarding a constitution
>> referendum in Bangladesh:*
>> *This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, in a referendum
>> election held by the end of February 2026, voters in Bangladesh approve a
>> ballot initiative with the effect of amending the Constitution of
>> Bangladesh.If no such referendum election is held by the end of February of
>> 2026, this market shall resolve to No. **PredictIt’s decisions and
>> determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and
>> shall be final.*
>
>
> *Suppose instead it had been about who will win the 2020
> presidential election in the US. Would the bet have been resolved by
> January 7, 2021? The US Constitution says yes but He Who Must Not Be Named
> and his gang of MAGA worshipers said no, and they have continued to say no
> to this very day. *
>

That's why the parties involved don't get to adjudicate.  Basically
everyone who is neither a Trump backer nor a Biden backer says that Biden
won.

(Granted, many Trump backers claim that there is no such thing as a person
who is neither a Trump backer nor a Biden backer - not even aome random
African teenager with Internet access who couldn't care less about the USA,
but who can and does read up on world history and comes to conclusions
based on the evidence available.  Refusal to acknowledge the existence of
neutral people in conflicts does not make said neutral people not exist.)

In any case, more proper adjudication dates might have been Inauguration
Day or the day after Inauguration Day, which IIRC were about a couple weeks
later than January 7, 2021.

>
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