[ExI] more fun with hurricanes

[spike at rainier66.com]

A few weeks ago I noted that 2026 Atlantic hurricane season was starting out
unusually quiet.  Someone, I think it was Keith, pointed out that it is
because of the super El Nino conditions.  At the time, I noted that there
had been no Atlantic hurricanes.  

 

Today I stepped back thru the data, one year at a time on Wikipedia back to
1960, which offers a great summary of the hurricane season.  Here's last
year:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season

 

There you see the first hurricane of the year was Erin, which reached
hurricane strength on 15 August of last year.  

 

Going back thru the years to 1960 (the first year we had a weather satellite
giving us unambiguous data) I found there is a three way tie for the latest
first Atlantic hurricane of the year, Humberto in 2013, Gustav in 2002 and
Diana in 1984, each reaching hurricane strength on 11 September of those
years.  Tropical storm Edouard probably would have formed the first
hurricane had it not accidentally collided with Louisiana, which weakened
and dissipated the storm before it could ruin our chances at a (post 1960)
record for the latest in the year first hurricane.  Who put Louisiana in the
way?  I'll sue!

 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) offers a forecast
good for about 7 days out (hurricanes take about that long to form, once
they spot a tropical depression.)  Today's the third of September.  Seven
days from now is 10 September.  Tomorrow we may find out if 2026 will break
the record currently held as a three-way tie, 1984, 2002 and 2013.  We may
not find out tomorrow: it is possible for a hurricane to form in less than
seven days.  But it will be enough notice that we can makes bets and such.

 

I hope 2026 breaks the record, because I don't like records being held as a
tie, and also because I don't like weather-related death and destruction.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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