[ExI] more fun with hurricanes

[Brent Allsop]

Interesting.


On Thu, Sep 3, 2026 at 2:09 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

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> A few weeks ago I noted that 2026 Atlantic hurricane season was starting
> out unusually quiet.  Someone, I think it was Keith, pointed out that it is
> because of the super El Nino conditions.  At the time, I noted that there
> had been no Atlantic hurricanes.
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> Today I stepped back thru the data, one year at a time on Wikipedia back
> to 1960, which offers a great summary of the hurricane season.  Here’s last
> year:
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> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season
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> There you see the first hurricane of the year was Erin, which reached
> hurricane strength on 15 August of last year.
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> Going back thru the years to 1960 (the first year we had a weather
> satellite giving us unambiguous data) I found there is a three way tie for
> the latest first Atlantic hurricane of the year, Humberto in 2013, Gustav
> in 2002 and Diana in 1984, each reaching hurricane strength on 11 September
> of those years.  Tropical storm Edouard probably would have formed the
> first hurricane had it not accidentally collided with Louisiana, which
> weakened and dissipated the storm before it could ruin our chances at a
> (post 1960) record for the latest in the year first hurricane.  Who put
> Louisiana in the way?  I’ll sue!
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> The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) offers a
> forecast good for about 7 days out (hurricanes take about that long to
> form, once they spot a tropical depression.)  Today’s the third of
> September.  Seven days from now is 10 September.  Tomorrow we may find out
> if 2026 will break the record currently held as a three-way tie, 1984, 2002
> and 2013.  We may not find out tomorrow: it is possible for a hurricane to
> form in less than seven days.  But it will be enough notice that we can
> makes bets and such.
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> I hope 2026 breaks the record, because I don’t like records being held as
> a tie, and also because I don’t like weather-related death and destruction.
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> spike
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