[ExI] alternative gambling game

Gregory Jones spike66 at att.net
Wed Jun 30 06:39:36 UTC 2010

--- On Tue, 6/29/10, Gregory Jones <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> ...That would be a cool game!  In fact, we could spice it up a bit by offering 1100 bucks to the winners.  The mathematically sophisticated proles might then calculate that they have a mathematical expectation of profit in this game: 1 buck for a 1 in 1000 chance at a tax-free 1100 bucks!  ...spike
OK I just wrote a sim for this, and I am having a hard time believing my results.  I decided to run it over night so I have a ton of data.  In the mean time, do speculate what would be the results: the state gets to pick which is the winning number, and I arbitrarily chose 50,000 proles playing.  The state pays 1100 clams, for picking a 3 digit number, tax free.  What a deal!  You pay a buck for a 1 in 1000 chance at 1100.  
Use your intuition to speculate, then calculate it closed form if you are able and so inclined, but do feel free to post your guess before you do your reckons.  I have already ruined my guess with the sim, but had I posted before I saw the sim results, I would have estimated the state would pocket an average of about 10k per game.
What say ye?

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