[ExI] "Law of the Crypto Coin" proven by new data point?

Anders Sandberg anders at aleph.se
Tue Dec 17 14:11:07 UTC 2013


On 2013-12-17 11:35, Brent Allsop wrote:
>
> So far, it seems the expert consensus on this "Law of the Crypto Coin"
> is still unanimous.
>
> http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2
>
> Would anyone be in any way justified in drawing any conclusions from
> this unanimous consensus?

Hmm. Having consensus may not be as important as knowing what the people 
who are good at forecasting are forecasting. So ideally you should check 
forecasting quality and then weigh the predictions/opinions based on 
this. However, one can do much better:

Have you looked at IARPAs work on Aggregative Content Analysing (ACE)?
http://www.iarpa.gov/Programs/ia/ACE/ace.html
In particular, Lyle Ungar, et al. The Good Judgment Project: A Large 
Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions:
https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/FSS/FSS12/paper/download/5570/5871

> We used a panel of more than 2,000 forecasters
> to systematically compare the performance of four different
> collaborative processes on a battery of political prediction
> problems. We found that teams and prediction markets
> systematically outperformed averages of individual
> forecasters, that training forecasters helps, and that the exact
> form of how predictions are combined has a large effect on
> overall prediction accuracy.

Overall, these findings seem to suggest that Canonizer might indeed be 
useful - IF one does accurate weighing, makes sure there is team 
interaction, and possibly include prediction markets.

In the case of bitcoin, I guess one can use the currency itself as a 
prediction market if there is a way for skeptics to short it.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University



More information about the extropy-chat mailing list