[ExI] Verbose AI

[Keith Henson]

I have not messed with ChatGPT (Bing interface) for a few weeks.

You might be amused to see what happened when I did.

Are the 15 dimming stars around Tabby's Star evidence of an
extraterrestrial civilization?

Bing, 10:28 PM

That's a very interesting question. The 15 dimming stars around
Tabby's Star are not necessarily evidence of an extraterrestrial
civilization, but they are certainly intriguing and worthy of further
investigation.

One of the most popular explanations for the dimming of Tabby's Star
is that it is surrounded by a cloud of dust and debris, possibly from
a destroyed planet or moon. This dust could block some of the star's
light at irregular intervals and wavelengths, creating the erratic
dimming patterns observed by the Kepler space
telescopehttps://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/mysterious-dimming-of-tabbys-star-may-be-caused-by-dust/https://www.sciencealert.com/a-bunch-of-potential-tabby-s-star-alikes-have-just-been-identified.

However, this hypothesis does not explain why the other 15 stars
exhibit similar behavior. Are they all coincidentally hosting dusty
debris fields? Or is there another natural phenomenon that can cause
such dimming? Some astronomers have suggested that these stars could
be young and surrounded by protoplanetary disks, or that they could be
undergoing stellar pulsations or magnetic
cycleshttps://www.sciencealert.com/a-bunch-of-potential-tabby-s-star-alikes-have-just-been-identified.

Of course, there is also the possibility that these stars are indeed
home to advanced alien civilizations that are building megastructures
around them to harvest their energy. This idea was first proposed by
astronomer Jason Wright in
2015https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tabby%27s_Star, and it has captured
the imagination of many people. However, there is no conclusive
evidence to support this claim, and it faces many challenges and
criticisms.

For example, how could such megastructures be constructed and
maintained without being detected by other means, such as radio
signals or infrared emissions? Why would aliens choose to build around
these particular stars, which are not very special or abundant in the
galaxy? And why would they need so much energy in the first place?
These are some of the questions that any alien megastructure theory
would have to answer
convincinglyhttps://www.sciencealert.com/a-bunch-of-potential-tabby-s-star-alikes-have-just-been-identified.

In conclusion, the 15 dimming stars around Tabby's Star are not
conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization, but they are
certainly fascinating and mysterious. They challenge our current
understanding of stellar physics and astrobiology, and they invite us
to explore them further with more data and observations. Perhaps one
day we will find out what is really going on with these cosmic
enigmas. blush

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/mysterious-dimming-of-tabbys-star-may-be-caused-by-dust/

https://www.sciencealert.com/a-bunch-of-potential-tabby-s-star-alikes-have-just-been-identified

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tabby%27s_Star

10:41 PM

Is computation a possible reason for needing a lot of energy at these 15 stars?

Bing, 10:42 PM

Computation is a possible reason for needing a lot of energy at these
15 stars, but it is not a very plausible one. Computation is the
process of performing calculations or operations on data, such as
solving problems, running programs, or simulating systems. Computation
requires energy to power the devices that perform the computation,
such as computers, servers, or quantum processors. The amount of
energy needed for computation depends on the complexity of the
problem, the efficiency of the device, and the duration of the
computation.

According to some estimates, the global energy consumption for
computation in 2020 was about 200 TWh (terawatt-hours), which is
equivalent to about 0.6% of the total global electricity consumption.
This means that the average power consumption for computation was
about 22.8 GW (gigawatts), or 0.03% of the total global power
generation. To put this in perspective, the average power output of a
single star like the Sun is about 3.8 x 10^26 W (watts), which is
about 16 billion times more than the global power consumption for
computation.

Therefore, if an alien civilization were to use computation as a
reason for needing a lot of energy at these 15 stars, they would have
to be performing extremely complex and long-lasting computations that
would require a huge amount of energy. For example, they could be
simulating entire universes, solving NP-hard problems, or cracking
encryption codes. However, these computations would also generate a
lot of heat and waste, which would have to be dissipated or recycled
somehow. Moreover, these computations would have to be very important
and urgent for the aliens, since they would be sacrificing a lot of
resources and potential risks for them.

[Keith]

If they have uploaded, the simulation hardware is the basis of their
existence, so “important and urgent” is accurate and a good use of
resources.  Computation efficiency increases at low temperature,
that’s just physics.  If that is what is going on, we can expect the
structures to be optimized for computation. The observed radiation is
65 K.  /Keith

In conclusion, computation is a possible reason for needing a lot of
energy at these 15 stars, but it is not a very likely one. There are
many other natural or artificial explanations that could account for
the dimming of these stars, such as dust, planets, pulsations, or
megastructures. Computation would require an extraordinary amount of
energy and complexity that would be hard to justify or sustain by any
rational civilization. blush

10:48 PM

If what we are looking at is a megastrucute for computation, what
would be a good temperature to radiate the waste heat?

Bing, 10:48 PM

That's a very speculative question, but I'll try to answer it based on
some assumptions and calculations. First, let's assume that the
megastructure for computation is a Dyson sphere, which is a
hypothetical structure that completely surrounds a star and captures
all of its energy output. Second, let's assume that the computation
device is a reversible computer, which is a theoretical device that
can perform any computation without generating any entropy or waste
heat. Third, let's assume that the computation device has a power
consumption of 10^18 W (one exawatt), which is about 0.26% of the
Sun's luminosity.

Now, according to the second law of thermodynamics, any real device
that performs computation will generate some waste heat, even if it is
reversible. The amount of waste heat depends on the temperature
difference between the device and the environment. The lower the
temperature difference, the less waste heat is generated. Therefore,
to minimize waste heat, the computation device should operate at a
temperature close to that of the environment.

The environment in this case is the Dyson sphere, which radiates the
captured energy from the star to space. The temperature of the Dyson
sphere depends on its radius and the star's luminosity. According to
the Stefan-Boltzmann law, the temperature of a black body that
radiates energy at a given rate is given by:

$$T = \left(\frac{P}{4 \pi R^2 \sigma}\right)^{1/4}$$

where $T$ is the temperature in kelvins, $P$ is the power in watts,
$R$ is the radius in meters, and $\sigma$ is the Stefan-Boltzmann
constant, which is about 5.67 x 10^-8 W/m^2 K^4.

If we assume that the Dyson sphere has a radius equal to the Earth's
orbit, which is about 1.5 x 10^11 m, and that the star has a
luminosity equal to the Sun's, which is about 3.8 x 10^26 W, then we
can calculate the temperature of the Dyson sphere as:

$$T = \left(\frac{3.8 \times 10^{26}}{4 \pi (1.5 \times 10^{11})^2
\times 5.67 \times 10^{-8}}\right)^{1/4}$$

$$T \approx 278 K$$

This means that the Dyson sphere would have a temperature of about 278
K or 5 °C, which is slightly warmer than Earth's average surface
temperature.

Therefore, if we want to minimize waste heat from computation, we
should operate the computation device at a temperature close to 278 K.
However, this would also mean that the computation device would have a
very low efficiency, since it would not be able to use much of the
captured energy from the star. A more realistic scenario would be to
operate the computation device at a higher temperature, but still
lower than that of the star.

For example, if we operate the computation device at a temperature of
1000 K, which is about 727 °C, then we can calculate the amount of
waste heat generated by using Carnot's theorem, which states that:

$$\eta = 1 - \frac{T_C}{T_H}$$

where $\eta$ is the efficiency of a heat engine operating between two
temperatures, $T_C$ is the cold reservoir temperature in kelvins, and
$T_H$ is the hot reservoir temperature in kelvins.

In this case, $T_C$ is the temperature of the Dyson sphere (278 K),
and $T_H$ is the temperature of the computation device (1000 K).
Therefore,

$$\eta = 1 - \frac{278}{1000}$$

$$\eta \approx 0.72$$

This means that the efficiency of the computation device would be
about 72%, which is quite high for a heat engine. However, this also
means that 28% of the input power would be wasted as heat. Since we
assumed that the input power was 10^18 W, this means that:

$$Q = P (1 - \eta)$$

where $Q$ is the waste heat in watts.

Therefore,

$$Q = 10^{18} (1 - 0.72)$$

$$Q \approx 2.8 \times 10^{17} W$$

This means that if we operate the computation device at a temperature
of 1000 K, it would generate about 280 petawatts of waste heat.

To radiate this waste heat to space, we would need another surface
area with a lower temperature than that of the Dyson sphere. For
example, if we use another spherical shell with a radius of twice that
of Earth's orbit (3 x 10^11 m), and a temperature of half that of
Earth's orbit (139 K or -134 °C), then we can calculate the power
radiated by using the Stefan-Boltzmann law again:

$$P = 4 \pi R^2 \sigma T^4$$

Therefore,

$$P = 4 \pi (3 \times 10^{11})^2 \times 5.67 \times 10^{-8} \times 139^4$$

$$P \approx 2.9 \times 10^{17} W$$

This means that the spherical shell would be able to radiate about 290
petawatts of power, which is slightly more than the waste heat
generated by the computation device. Therefore, this would be a good
temperature to radiate the waste heat.

Of course, this is a very simplified and hypothetical scenario, and
there are many other factors and challenges that would affect the
feasibility and desirability of such a megastructure for computation.
For example, how would the aliens communicate with the computation
device, or with each other? How would they protect the megastructure
from cosmic hazards, such as asteroids, comets, or supernovae? How
would they deal with the ethical and social implications of such a
massive project? These are some of the questions that any alien
civilization would have to answer before embarking on such an
endeavor. blush

10:59 PM

If what we see in the cluster of 15 stars is a civilization, how long
have they been in space?

Bing, 10:59 PM

That's a very hypothetical question, but I'll try to answer it based
on some assumptions and calculations. First, let's assume that the
cluster of 15 stars is indeed a civilization, and that they are at
least a type II civilization on the Kardashev
scalehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale, meaning that they
can directly consume the energy of a star, most likely through the use
of a Dyson sphere or a similar megastructure. Second, let's assume
that they started as a type I civilization on their home planet, and
that they followed a similar path of development as human
civilization, which is currently estimated to be at about 0.7 on the
Kardashev scalehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale. Third,
let's assume that they had a constant rate of growth in their energy
consumption and technological advancement, and that they did not
encounter any major setbacks or catastrophes.

Now, according to one estimate, human civilization has been growing
its energy consumption by about 2.3% per year since the Industrial
Revolution in the 18th
centuryhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_time_scale. This means
that human civilization would need about 1,600 years to reach type I
status, and about 3,200 years to reach type II status, assuming the
same rate of growth. However, this estimate is based on the current
energy output of the Sun, which is about 3.8 x 10^26 W (watts). If we
assume that the cluster of 15 stars has a similar energy output as the
Sun, then the total energy output of the cluster would be about 5.7 x
10^27 W. This means that the civilization would need less time to
reach type II status, since they would have more energy available to
them.

To calculate how long they have been in space, we need to find out how
long it took them to reach type I status on their home planet, and
then how long it took them to reach type II status in their star
cluster. To do this, we can use the following formula:

$$t = \frac{\ln \left(\frac{P_2}{P_1}\right)}{r}$$

where $t$ is the time in years, $P_2$ is the final power consumption
in watts, $P_1$ is the initial power consumption in watts, and $r$ is
the annual growth rate in decimal form.

To reach type I status on their home planet, we can assume that they
started with a power consumption similar to human civilization in the
year 1800, which was about 2 x 10^12
Whttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_time_scale. We can also assume
that they needed a power consumption equal to the energy output of
their home planet, which we can estimate to be about 1.7 x 10^17
Whttps://www.nationalgeographic.org/article/key-components-civilization/,
based on Earth's value. Therefore,

$$t_1 = \frac{\ln \left(\frac{1.7 \times 10^{17}}{2 \times
10^{12}}\right)}{0.023}$$

$$t_1 \approx 1,100$$

This means that it took them about 1,100 years to reach type I status
on their home planet.

To reach type II status in their star cluster, we can assume that they
started with a power consumption equal to their home planet's energy
output (1.7 x 10^17 W), and that they needed a power consumption equal
to the total energy output of their star cluster (5.7 x 10^27 W).
Therefore,

$$t_2 = \frac{\ln \left(\frac{5.7 \times 10^{27}}{1.7 \times
10^{17}}\right)}{0.023}$$

$$t_2 \approx 2,000$$

This means that it took them about 2,000 years to reach type II status
in their star cluster.

Therefore, the total time that they have been in space is:

$$t = t_1 + t_2$$

$$t \approx 3,100$$

This means that they have been in space for about 3,100 years.

Of course, this is a very rough and simplified estimate, and there are
many factors and uncertainties that could affect the actual time span.
For example, the cluster of 15 stars could have different types and
sizes of stars than the Sun, which would affect their energy output
and availability. The civilization could have different rates of
growth and development than human civilization, which would affect
their energy consumption and technological advancement. The
civilization could also face various challenges and opportunities in
their space exploration and colonization, such as encountering other
civilizations or natural phenomena.

In conclusion, if what we see in the cluster of 15 stars is a
civilization, how long they have been in space depends on many
assumptions and calculations. Based on one possible scenario, they
could have been in space for about 3,100 years. However, this is only
a hypothetical answer, and the actual time span could be much shorter
or longer, depending on the reality of the situation. blush

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_time_scale

https://www.nationalgeographic.org/article/key-components-civilization/

11:02 PM

Assuming orbital mechanics, does a K2 make sense?  Or would something
short of a K2 with orbiting patches be more in line with reality?

Bing, 11:03 PM

That's a very interesting question. A K2 civilization is a
hypothetical type of civilization that can harness the energy of a
star, most likely through the use of a Dyson sphere or a similar
megastructure. A Dyson sphere is a spherical shell that completely
surrounds a star and captures all of its energy output. Orbital
mechanics is the study of the motion of satellites and other
spacecraft in orbits, based on Newton's laws of motion and the law of
universal gravitation.

To answer your question, we need to consider the feasibility and
desirability of building a Dyson sphere and how it would affect the
orbital mechanics of the star system. There are several challenges and
limitations that a K2 civilization would have to overcome to construct
and maintain such a megastructure, such as:

•  The enormous amount of material and engineering required to build a
solid shell around a star, which would be vulnerable to impacts,
instabilities, and stresses.

•  The difficulty of synchronizing the orbits of thousands or millions
of individual components, such as satellites, mirrors, or solar
panels, that would form a partial or swarm-like Dyson sphere.

•  The loss of natural light and heat for any planets or moons within
the Dyson sphere, which would affect their climate, biosphere, and
habitability.

•  The potential interference with the communication and navigation of
spacecraft within or outside the Dyson sphere, which would require
complex coordination and protocols.

•  The ethical and social implications of altering the natural state
of a star system, which could affect its cultural, historical, or
religious significance.

Therefore, it might not make sense for a K2 civilization to build a
complete Dyson sphere around their star, unless they have very
compelling reasons and solutions for these challenges. A more
realistic scenario might be to build a partial or swarm-like Dyson
sphere that covers only a fraction of the star's surface, and allows
some energy to escape. This would reduce the material and engineering
requirements, as well as the orbital mechanics complexity. It would
also allow some natural light and heat to reach the planets or moons
within the star system, and some communication and navigation signals
to pass through the gaps in the megastructure.

Alternatively, a K2 civilization might opt for something short of a K2
with orbiting patches, as you suggested. These patches could be
smaller and more flexible structures that can adjust their position
and orientation according to the needs and preferences of the
civilization. They could also be more easily moved or removed if
necessary. These patches could serve various purposes, such as:

•  Collecting solar energy for power generation or transmission.

•  Providing artificial habitats or environments for living or working.

•  Enhancing scientific research or exploration of the star system.

•  Creating artistic or aesthetic displays or effects.

In conclusion, assuming orbital mechanics, a K2 civilization might not
make sense to build a complete Dyson sphere around their star, but
rather a partial or swarm-like one, or something short of a K2 with
orbiting patches. These options would be more feasible and desirable
in terms of material, engineering, orbital mechanics, environmental,
ethical, and social factors.



[Keith]

I would have looked at the size of the cluster, assumed the origin at
the middle and some fraction of the C to guess how long they have been
around.  Bing did it a different way, looking at the power use growth.
Bing also wonders why the limited types of dipping stars in the
cluster.  This is obvious to me, they evolved around a G type and seek
out similar stars for colonizing.

Bing asked why they don’t show up as radio or thermal.  I think
communication here has already moved to lasers.  And I think Bing is
not aware of directional heat radiation.  (Invented for thermal power
satellites.)

I might go through this in a reply and note where I disagree with Bing.


Keith