[ExI] shops opening

Sat Apr 18 00:04:45 UTC 2020

More evidence from Spike's neck of the woods that the real rate of spread
is likely massively higher:

The  most  important  implication  of  these  findings  is  that  the
number  of  infections  is  much  greater  than  the reported  number of
cases. Our data  imply  that, by  April 1  (three  days  prior  to  the
end  of  our  survey) between  48,000  and  81,000  people  had  been
infected  in  Santa  Clara  County.  The  reported  number  of confirmed
positive  cases  in  the  county  on  April  1  was  956,  50-85-fold
lower than  the  number of infections  predicted  by  this  study.17  The
infection  to  case  ratio,  also  referred  to  as  an
under-ascertainment rate, of at least 50,  is meaningfully  higher than
current estimates.10,18   This  ascertainment  rate  is  a fundamental
parameter of many  projection  and  epidemiologic  models, and  is used  as
a  calibration  target for understanding  epidemic  stage  and
calculating  fatality  rates.19,20   The  under-ascertainment  for
COVID19  is  likely  a  function  of  reliance  on  PCR  for  case
identification  which  misses  convalescent  cases,  early spread  in  the
absence  of systematic  testing, and  asymptomatic  or lightly
symptomatic  infections  that  go undetected.

https://tinyurl.com/ydgsj8av

On Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 1:52 PM Dylan Distasio <interzone at gmail.com> wrote:

> Spike-
>
> Thanks for posting this, as I had not seen it yet, but for me, it is one
> more plank for the hypothesis that I have been working with based strictly
> on my own armchair analysis.  We have seen prior evidence that a very large
> portion of CV-19 positive carriers are completely asymptomatic (especially
> younger, healthy ones).   My working theory is that CV-19 got to the US
> earlier than suspected by many, and has spread to way more people than many
> suspect in areas like the NYC metro region.
>
> I think it is extremely contagious and aerolizes very easily despite what
> we were originally told, and that if we had been encouraged to wear masks
> early on (assuming one could find them) that the spread would have been
> greatly slowed.  My buddy who is a paramedic who did have very good proper
> PPE and followed best practices still ended up with it.  People on the
> cruise ship also got it even in quarantine which points to it easily
> getting onto food service items from those workers or through the
> ventilation system.  I also suspect the real CFR is pretty close to typical
> influenza and that the German CFR is not an outlier due to the total
> infected counts being WAY under counted.
>
> Based on SARs patterns alone (a very simple model), I suspect this will
> have run its course in the US by early June (with some possible flare ups
> in localized hot spots).   I also find it highly likely that it will be
> seasonal and die off over the summer despite some of the "experts" saying
> otherwise.
>
> Since we've already gone down the path of destroying the US economy (which
> I was against), I think we should probably keep the NYC metro region in the
> status quo through the end of May and then start reopening it in stages as
> proposed by the Feds.  I think any states that don't have a big problem
> with it should begin that phased reopening TODAY.   I think high risk
> groups should continue to avoid going out more than necessary and continue
> more extreme measures until better treatment or a vaccine is developed.
>
> There are still a lot of open questions around immunity and the
> possibility of recurrence, but for me, this entire exercise has been a HUGE
> overreaction.   Sweden may be getting a lot of bad press recently with the
> number of deaths, but their curves on active cases look the same as
> everyone else's at far less economic cost.
>
> On Fri, Apr 17, 2020 at 1:36 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> > *On Behalf Of *Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat
>> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] shops opening
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> >…I would point out donut shops ARE essential services for the boys/gals
>> in blue!
>>
>>
>>
>> Well ja, there is that.  Donut shops are perhaps the safest place to hang
>> out in the whole city: always constables hanging around.
>>
>>
>>
>> Dylan et al, what is your take on this please?  Does it seem plausible?
>> If true, it is important:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/coronavirus-clue-most-cases-aboard-stricken-us-aircraft-carrier-are-symptom-free
>>
>>
>>
>> …The Navy's testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft
>> carrier - which is about 94 per cent complete - was an extraordinary move...
>>
>> …Roughly 60 per cent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far
>> have not shown symptoms of Covid-19, the potentially lethal respiratory
>> disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says…
>>
>> We know that some people can carry HIV for decades and never develop
>> AIDS.  Others just spin right into the ground almost immediately.
>>
>>
>>
>> This carrier represents a big enough sample, carefully controlled (they
>> have been quarantined together) where they know their medical histories, so
>> this might be a really important dataset.
>>
>>
>>
>> spike
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>
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