[ExI] US ?failed miserably? in wargame reportedly against China attack on Taiwan

Tue Aug 10 22:49:39 UTC 2021

Spike wrote:

"The USA sent a clear and powerful message to the world by revealing the
outcome of those war games.  The USA will not defend Taiwan.  The cost of
defending Taiwan exceeds the value of Taiwan."

You are assuming a reason for the leak which could very easily be
completely wrong. I think you have a strong bias due to your strong desire
that the U.S. not risk a potential nuclear war by getting involved in a
shooting match with China. The leak could have happened due to the navy
wanting more resources to prepare for a possible war, or as a means of
deceiving China and making them think we are far more vulnerable than we
actually are in reality.

"I can see why this is of particular interest to you John, for once China
bites off Taiwan and several of the other eastern nations, it is only a
matter of time before it sets its sights on the Philippines.  China is both
patient and ambitious."

China parked over 200 large fishing/militia vessels within Filipino
territorial waters. It took the two new guided missile frigates purchased
from South Korea, with two American aircraft carriers within attack range
backing them up, for the majority of the Chinese vessels to pull up their
anchors and finally leave. The navy of the Philippines until recently was
embarrassingly out of date, but they at least now have three new guided
missile frigates and three corvettes, all from South Korea and built with
an emphasis on anti-submarine warfare. They are now looking at the
possibility of obtaining two diesel powered attack submarines. And they
hope to update their air force, by possibly buying some Saab Gripen fighter
bombers or F-16's. The Swedish plane may be the better option for them.
Ultimately, these improvements give them a definite sting, though China's
military will always dwarf them.

I am hoping that whoever is elected as the next president of the
Philippines, that they reopen Subic Bay as an American navy base. There had
been a plan to do it that almost happened, but Duerte vetoed it. I respect
his motivation, that he did not want to offend China, but ultimately, that
did not earn him good treatment from Jinping. The plan is to not only
reopen Subic, but build an advanced shipbuilding facility, where American
and western engineers and technicians can teach the Filipinos how to build
frigate and corvette class warships, among other types. At first these
would be for their own navy, and they would know how to repair and maintain
the vessels, rather than depending on the United States. Over time the
Philippines could even start selling the vessels abroad, and have an arms
industry that could employ many thousands of people and help to defend the
region from Chinese hostility. We shall see.

Duerte wanted to suck up to China and reap the benefits, but he was treated
very disrespectfully by Jinping, despite those efforts. And the senate of
the Philippines rejected the huge loan offer from China, that
potentially could have transformed the country, because it was basically a
financial trap that the Philippines could have easily fallen into, with
their infrastructure being seized as a penalty. But China does not really
need to land marines in Manilla Harbor because they are already here in
force at an economic level. There are now at least *300,000* Chinese
citizens here, legal and illegal (many illegal) who are here for both legal
and illicit business enterprises. And from what I have read, the CCP
encourages this, as a means of softening/influencing this country. The
Chinese triads are one the the big drivers here for this activity, in terms
of human trafficking. And illegal online gambling websites are a huge and
super profitable industry among some of the Chinese immigrants. The
Philippines is known as a place where they can engage in such activities
and not be as heavily policed as back home.

And keep in mind that the super wealthy upper classes here are of Chinese
origin. They have been here for centuries, but many are fifty, seventy-five
percent, or even one-hundred percent Chinese in terms of blood. And of
course their loyalty is to themselves and not the CCP. But still, they are
networked into the Chinese diaspora, which is to their advantage. I don't
see them as caring very much about the general population of the
Philippines, for various reasons, but then over the centuries their
ancestors faced horrible persecution for being different. But they
certainly came out on top and are now the power behind the throne of
whoever is elected. I suppose they hope they can in time come to an
understanding with the CCP about their place in China's master plan. A
similar thing was tried when Imperial Japan occupied the Philippines, but
ultimately the Japanese went on a killing spree that resulted in many of
the wealthiest having their families decimated by mass executions that were
meant to break the will to resist.

I'm not sure how truly patient China is, though this is a
stereotyped quality of Asian behavior. Many people view Xi Jinping as not
patient, because his ego stands in his way, and he wants the personal glory
of going down in the history books as the Chinese leader who conquered
China. And so he has probably roughly fifteen years to do it, before he
gets too old and gets put out to pasture. This actually concerns loyal CCP
leaders, who are afraid that he will have China go to war against the West
before they are ready, resulting in a humiliating defeat which might
actually end up destroying the CCP. But yes, they are ambitious to be sure.
But until recently, world leaders seemed not to take seriously their
statements about planning to dominate the world, and remake it with China
in the American role as the leading power.

John

On Mon, Aug 9, 2021 at 10:57 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *>…* *On Behalf Of *John Grigg via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] US ?failed miserably? in wargame reportedly against
> China attack on Taiwan
>
>
>
> >…I predict the US will go into action to fight China and defend Taiwan,
> no matter the risks. We will see how the wargames compare to reality! Lol
> The war could prove to be one of the greatest military upsets in history,
> or it could be an extremely bloody morale boost to a very troubled America.
> I think it will happen within the next five years, as supposedly does
> U.S. Naval Command.
>
>
>
> >…I have been following this subject closely online and the U.S. Navy and
> the Pentagon at this point are basically on nearly a war footing when it
> comes to preparing for a future shooting match with China. And as part of
> that effort they are trying to drastically speed up the design, testing and
> building of weapons systems. They suspect they are getting ready for
> conflict on borrowed time. The war drums are being played loudly on both
> sides of the Pacific!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> John, international rules differ from the rules of human interaction.  An
> example is the well-known principle that weakness is provocation.  When the
> value of any nation exceeds the cost to an attacker to take it, an attacker
> will take it.
>
>
>
> That well-known principle has a corollary: If the cost of defending any
> ally exceeds the value of that ally, the defending country will not defend
> that ally.
>
>
>
> The USA sent a clear and powerful message to the world by revealing the
> outcome of those war games.  The USA will not defend Taiwan.  The cost of
> defending Taiwan exceeds the value of Taiwan.
>
>
>
> I can see why this is of particular interest to you John, for once China
> bites off Taiwan and several of the other eastern nations, it is only a
> matter of time before it sets its sights on the Philippines.  China is both
> patient and ambitious.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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