[ExI] Population growth & Life-Extension

Adrian Tymes atymes at gmail.com
Fri Aug 27 16:01:50 UTC 2021

On Fri, Aug 27, 2021 at 2:25 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Graph showing effect of life-extension on population growth:
> This assumes that extreme longevity will reduce the desire to have
> children, which seems a reasonable assumption, given the usual real reason
> for having kids (to look after you in your dotage). Note the extreme
> difference between having an average of 2.5 kids and 2. Note also that 2
> kids per couple is no longer 'replacement rate', as there is no death. Of
> course there still would be, but from accidents etc., not from ageing.
True, the usual reason would go away - but with no death, people with other
reasons would have a lot longer to have and raise kids.

I recall one story of a guy who lived to 105 but looked no more than 50 who
wanted an heir - not someone to take care of him, as he had a reasonable
(and, it turns out, correct) expectation of being in good health until
right before he met a sudden death, but someone to take care of all he was
responsible for.  His first heir ran into problems as an adult, so he had a
second child.  (At the time of the story, the first child was 54 and the
second 28.)  Had he lived a few more years, he might have had a third child
upon realizing the problems with his second.  With enough time, the cycle
might have continued yet further.
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